Real estate investment in 2024 is viewed through two overlapping lenses: that of credit rates, which are beginning to ease after two years of increases, and that of energy regulations, which are reshaping the landscape of profitable properties. Comparing these two dynamics allows us to assess where the true leeway lies for a rental or asset project.
Mortgage Credit Volumes and Rental Investment Share: The Gaps That Matter
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023-2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage loan volumes | 18.7 billion euros | 7.6 billion euros (early 2024) |
| Share of rental investment (CAFPI estimate) | 10.1 % | 8.5 % (2023) |
| Price trend | Increase or plateau | Moderate decline, buyer-friendly market |
The decline in loan volumes between 2022 and early 2024 exceeds a simple cyclical correction. A market divided by more than two in volume indicates a selective access to credit, with debt-to-income criteria framed by the High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF).
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Renaud Cormier, president of the French Rental Real Estate Association, emphasized that this contraction has reversed the balance of power in favor of buyers. Negotiation margins on purchase prices have widened, partially offsetting the cost of credit. Listings referenced on immob.biz reflect this mechanism: more properties are staying online longer, a sign of regained negotiating power for buyers.
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DPE Schedule and Rental Investment: The Deadlines of the Climate and Resilience Law
The Climate and Resilience Law (law n°2021-1104 of August 22, 2021) imposes a gradual rental ban schedule based on the energy class of the housing. This schedule now structures all purchase decisions aimed at rental purposes.
- Class G housing: rental ban effective from January 1, 2025.
- Class F housing: ban scheduled for January 1, 2028.
- Class E housing: ban scheduled for January 1, 2034.
The Ministry of Ecological Transition confirmed in November 2023 that these deadlines remain the baseline scenario, with no major easing. For an investor, this means that a property classified as F purchased in 2024 must reach at least class E before 2028 to remain rentable.
Two strategies coexist. The first targets properties already classified as D or C, eliminating regulatory risk but reducing negotiation margins on price. The second focuses on thermal sieves with high renovation potential, where the discount at purchase can absorb the cost of renovations, provided the actual renovation budget is controlled.
MaPrimeRénov’ 2024: What Changes for Landlords
Since January 1, 2024, MaPrimeRénov’ has been split into two distinct pathways: “efficiency” for isolated actions and “overall performance” for major renovations. The priority targeting is on properties classified as F and G.
Landlord owners remain eligible, but the scheme encourages extensive renovations rather than just replacing a boiler. An investor purchasing a thermal sieve must incorporate the overall performance pathway into their financing plan, otherwise, the aids will be reduced or inaccessible.
End of the Pinel Scheme and Arbitration Between LMNP and Unfurnished Rental
The Pinel scheme ended on December 31, 2024, after several years of gradual reduction of tax benefits. This disappearance alters the equation for investors who entered the new market primarily for the tax leverage.
In contrast, the status of non-professional furnished rental (LMNP) retains its accounting depreciation mechanism for the property, which significantly reduces the taxable base of rental income. The comparison between unfurnished rental under the real regime and LMNP relies on three variables:
- The amount of deductible expenses (loan interest, renovations, insurance) in unfurnished rental.
- The possibility to depreciate the price of the property and furniture in LMNP, reducing taxation over several years.
- The treatment of capital gains upon resale, more favorable in unfurnished rental (holding period allowance) than in LMNP if the property has been depreciated.
The arbitration between LMNP and unfurnished rental depends on the intended holding period. Over a short horizon (less than ten years), LMNP presents an immediate tax advantage. Over a long horizon, unfurnished rental may prove more advantageous upon resale.
Credit Rates and HCSF Easing: The 2024 Buying Window
After the sharp rise in key rates by the ECB between 2022 and 2023, the decline that began in 2024 has started to loosen access to mortgage credit. The HCSF has also relaxed its recommendations on the flexibility margins granted to banks, which opens up more files for financing.
The combination of falling prices and easing rates creates an entry point that the market has not seen since the pre-2022 period. Transaction volumes remain low, but each completed operation benefits from more favorable negotiation conditions for the buyer.
For a rental investment project, the classic amortizable loan over twenty years remains the dominant structure. The PTZ (zero-interest loan), refocused on certain areas and conditions, concerns more the purchase of a primary residence than pure investment, but can be articulated with a first residential purchase later resold as rental.
The real estate market of 2024 rewards investors who can read a DPE as well as a depreciation table. Rental profitability is now calculated after integrating the cost of energy compliance, and no longer solely based on the gross rent relative to the purchase price.